I was speaking with my brother this afternoon (who is a guitar collector), and I was suprised at how much the vintage guitar market had taken a beating. It made me think about the current craze the gas/oil market is having.
Here's a link to the article
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE85D0PS20120614?irpc=932My favorite quote was from George Gruhn…
"Guitars got touted as great investments," says Gruhn. "And when you get speculators who buy strictly to flip things, they can build it into a big bubble and a frenzy."
Kind of sounds familiar...
One of the problems is "pickers." Pickers usually don't have much general knowledge, meaning a little knowledge about a lot of categories. Unless you know something about guitars it is difficult to spot a good one, where petroliana comes in bright colors and is easy to identify.
Jack Sim
When you watch Antiques Roadshow reruns, it's surprising how guitar prices jumped around.
Never a better time to remind people to buy what you love, because in the long term, there probably won't be money in it.
I think Premo signs and globes in super condition will always be high valued because of the crossover with advertising .. I agree, buy the best and you better love the stuff.
"And when you get speculators who buy strictly to flip things, they can build it into a big bubble and a frenzy."
Kind of sounds familiar...
...heh...yeah, it does...
I believe the gas & oil market will ride out any market corrections without a crash. This market is unique due to many reasons. It appeals to many demographics and above all, everyone can relate to some aspect of it at a personal level. From owning a car, working on it, filling it up at certain stations. Personal or family memories of relationships with certain brands or products. Or as simple as the bold graphics or marketing associated with some of the products.
...Dave, not trying to pick a fight, as I'm headed out the door to see 'Birdman', but I had to reply to your post...
"It appeals to many demographics and above all, everyone can relate to some aspect of it at a personal level."
...as does music - I'd argue even more so...
"From owning a car, working on it, filling it up at certain stations."
...from seeing a band, buying your first guitar, playing in a garage band, working in radio...
"Personal or family memories of relationships with certain brands or products."
...that song that got you to buy a guitar; that song that reminds you of a high school sweetheart; Elvis, Beatlemania, Woodstock; John Lennon's assassination...
"Or as simple as the bold graphics or marketing associated with some of the products."
...the clean lines of a vintage Martin guitar...Gibson Les Paul...a rare Flying V...etc...etc...
...I don't see any real difference...the prices are driven by the same emotional attachments/fetishes...speculators are drawn in to ride the elevator while it's moving, and leap off, as soon as it stops...
...while there are a few folks on Oldgas whose wallets/disposable income strain credulity, the fact remains that 70% of Americans make 50K a year, or less...how many of them can afford $2000 signs? or $200 signs? How many worthwhile $200 signs are even out there, priced for the beginning buyer?...
Mark those are valid observations and I respect your differing opinion.
Just a thought and some of my experience...FOREIGN MARKET. Look where ALL HD vintage bikes are going...THEY Hate us generally, but LOVE OUR STUFF.
Collectables are no different than playing in the stock market if that is what you are in it for. I have seen the prices on collectables go up and down so many times. Jim probably has 250+ threads about it on this website if one could search it all out.
In time most of the uneducated "Pickers" will go away. Then the stock market will crash and peoples extra spending cash will go away for awhile, then we will wonder if the younger generation will ever pick up where we left off.
I feel for the people it really hurts. I grew up a farm, and we had large signs on remote farm properties. STAY OUT that was the old version... now they say STAY OUT.. NOTHIHG FOR SALE.
But people still Trespass to see what's in there.
So yes, I am sure we are not alone in all this. Many other collectables have the same issues. I have some Rare Walt Disney VHS's... worth over $100.00, 10 years ago.... wonder what I can get today....
It's very hard to predict what the future will hold for oil and gas collectibles or in different collectibles markets in general. One reality that seems unavoidable in the hobby is prices will more than likely level off and stop drastically increasing the way they have been. Personally, I beleive all quality conditioned Petroliana items should retain their value based on the fact they are becoming more difficult to find as time goes bye. In regards to the discussion of music collectibles and petroliana. I think both Dave and Mark are correct in their observations of the dynamic the two different hobbies and the enthusiasts that collect the items hold. Personally, I tend to lean more towards Daves outlook. Although music does touch more people and probably has a larger group of enthusiasts collecting. I feel their is much more stuff for people collecting music related memorabilia. You have posters, CDs, tapes, records, tshirts, concert ticket stubs and backstage passes, autographs, instruments, bumper stickers, and on and on. Plus, you have all the different styles of music, endless amounts of different bands/performers, and many different sub categories within music that a collector could focus on. Sure, Petroliana has its fair share of items out there. But, it seems to me collectors seem to center on a couple major groups of items. Cans, signs, and pumps. At the end of the day, this causes much more competition for the limited desirable items and will keep the items values steady or possibly rising. Were as with musical collectibles, the demand for a large amount of the items isn't there. Which ultimately keeps the market from being competitive. Just the way I see it. I definitely could be wrong.
You forgot a few categories and sub categories of petroliana collectibles Brian. There are those that collect maps; can collectors can be divided into sub categories as some specialize in handy oilers, one pound grease cans, quarts, five quarts, etc; there are sign pole thermometer collectors,oil can bank collectors, counter display collectors. You forgot the most important petroliana collectibles altogether....gas pump globes!
Mark's final point was an important one. Last week I had an email from a long time collector that has a collection that would put most collections to shame. The guy isn't what I'd consider to be on a low budget at all, but even he says he's being priced out of the hobby.
This market, like all collectibles markets, will correct; it's simply the way things work. I spent many, many years collecting WWII uniforms and saw prices trend upwards over time and then spike when Saving Private Ryan and Band of Brothers came out. I kind of equate that with what American Pickers has done for petroliana. A few years after the militaria market spiked, it corrected. This has also happened to Model Ts, muscle cars, steamship collectibles, Star Wars items, etc., and will also happen to petroliana.
The best thinking I've heard on this dynamic is that the collectibles market trends along with the demographic that has disposable income. In other words, people grow up seeing and hearing things in their youth and it becomes part of them. Later in life, they have some extra money and a bit of nostalgia and would like to have some of those things around them. This creates a collectibles market. Ultimately, these people lose interest, die, whatever, and the market corrects as a lot of items are on the market with many fewer buyers with the same level of interest. It's happened over and over; it will happen again.
My observation is, if you are looking to preserve your money and to have some kind of "investment", is to buy the best quality items you can as quality always sells the quickest and at the highest price. The other great piece of advice I've seen play out is to look around and see what the teenagers of today are interested in as these will be the collectibles 30-40 years from now that are spiking in price in the market. True story!
Anyhow, hope maybe someone found this of interest...
Regards,
Drew
This question has been asked and debated for close to 12 years here on Oldgas, that I know of (my time as a Member and before when I lurked) and has been debated in the Hobby for over 50 years...
I don't remember a collapse or even a major correction, whereas it comes to Petro Values...
Now, too many in this Hobby, include Automotive, Country Store and general Advertising into the "net" that entails the Petro Hobby...
Those Hobbies have had major spikes in values... But, purely Petro items, have not had any of these major "roller-coaster" value fluctuations... (or atleast they haven't since I started in the Hobby in the early 1960s...)...
Will it happen, I have no idea... I am afraid of Ouija Boards, never learned how to "read Chicken Bones" when I lived in Panama, like Harry Potter, I never was any good at reading Tea Leaves and my "Magic 8-Ball" from the 50s; is like me, too old to really care....
Most of my items, I acquired for decent amounts.. In some instances, I even "sort of stole them" compared to prices being asked and even received for comparable items even a few years ago...
If one is acquiring items to pad their "nest egg"? Good Luck. If one is acquiring items, because they love this Hobby... Then no matter what happens in the future; In my Opinion, You will always be okay!
I guess I honestly don't get the dislike for pickers on here.
I'm not sure if it's because it's raised everyone's IQ regarding this stuff is worth money ... therefore "true buyers of petro" now have to pay more.
I'm not sure if it's because it is depleting the number of items available for "true buyers of petro"
I have enjoyed the upside to people's awareness level being raised. I've got a lot of casual friends that now tell me they are keeping an eye out for me regarding petro stuff.
If pickers are responsible as many claim on here for increase in prices...then I guess I'm pretty happy about that because I've got a lot of stuff.
And quite honestly...if a picker is someone who rolls up on property in the countryside looking for petro and tries to buy it at a reasonable price so he can either flip it to buy other petro stuff...or just to hang on the wall...then I guess I've been a picker for a long time.
I think the dislike with the pickers is because the way many of them conduct themselves. There are professional pickers and then the people who think they are professional pickers. Look at the petro facebook groups...perfect example of how some of these people conduct business...is this for sale? is that for sale? how much is it ? All from Pickers when the item says NOT FOR SALE. Some of the pickers have manipulated market prices by putting stupid numbers on garbage....this makes a person think their $150 sign is worth $2000 because they saw it listed on ebay for a crazy price. It has become much more expensive for a serious collector to buy things. Not because the items are worth these insane asking prices, its because the market "thinks" that gas and oil stuff is GOLD! The market will fall and fall hard on the off condition stuff, because when the next craze comes along only the serious collectors will be left and they demand high quality items.
Many good comments here. I have watched this hobby for 40 years now. This topic comes up all the time. In a nutshell, prices adjust up and down but the only major adjustment I had ever seen in this hobby was around 2007-2008 when prices on certain items got way too high, the economy took a dump and gas and oil followed in some areas. Prices have since mostly rebounded, some now beyond that. I sell many gas globes in the $250-$1000, which are staples items for me. Rare and expensive ones have a limited market but when you can find them they sell. American Pickers have brought awareness to what we all have been doing for years but in my opinion have down more harm than good to our hobby. As I've stated for decades, that fact that gas and oil is so closely tied to the automotive markets I feel it will always remain strong. Scott B.
I agree Scott and guys like you and Jack Sim make this hobby better by your education of us all . But it is a hobby and when guys try to make a living off it , the dynamics change .
I read something along the lines of , a rich stock market investor is getting his shoes shined in early 1929 . His shoe shine boy tells him how he has bought some stock . This fellow then sold all his stock based on the fact that people with very little knowledge were buying stocks . we all know how the next 10 years of the stock market went .
My point is , we seem to have a fair number of speculators involved right now , mixed with passionate collectors . $8000.00 repro pumps ?? Really ?
The old guys always told me , buy the best and most original you can find . You"ll always be happy with it .
Just my confusing 2 cents