Morphy has "all day" petro sales scheduled for February, march and April?! ..and this on top of its normal advertising auctions. I like Morphy and think they run a wonderful operation but man oh man when does this become saturation?

Saturation? He is not producing these signs, etc, they are all in collections either one person or a number of people. There are hundreds of new collectors entering the hobbie some for profit, some because they like the signs. For every auction there are ten times the people buying as there are signs for sale. Is your collection saturated?, mine is not I still look for them daily as most people. Just my two cents

Just simply saying that I am concerned with the number of higher end and once difficult to obtain duplicates that I have been seeing auctions offering to the public over and over again in the past few years. If I own a sign that I am particularly proud of and I notice Morphy selling it over and over and over again how could I possibly expect it's valuation not to drop? How many people out there wanna drop 5 figures on a Texaco marine oils sign, how many can you sell before the market becomes "saturated"? You're saying that new blood in the hobby will keep valuations strong-but i'm not sure that the "hundreds of new collectors" you're referring to are the same ones that are willing to drop 4-5 figures on a sign or globe. You cannot argue the fact that we have in the last few years seen an amazing array of sought-after items having been offered in numbers and quantities like never before. But what prestige do they carry when you can log on, click and have one 3, 4, 5 times or more in a year? A larger number of items that were once hard to come by are simply not any longer.

So true, but the prices keep going up. I can tell you for sure that it has been happening for over the 35 years I have been doing this. Problem is the numbers are just climbing and the number of high end buyers May not be. Tough to know, buy for your own liking and you will never be unhappy.

No truer words spoken!

Not to bring politics into this, but with the middle class not getting any better off for a while, who is going to be able to pay these prices now or even in 10 or 15 years? I make good money but even I have a hard time justifying spending four figures for a porcelain sign. These signs are so expensive now I don't see a lot of people having the disposable income. Besides, there aren't nearly as many gear-heads around today as even when I was a teenager back in the 80's. I think a lot of interest in gas & oil comes from love of cars and a lot of kids today don't love cars. Looking at most cars today, can you blame them? They're too distracted with the internet, online gaming and their silly smartphones.

In another 15-20 years all the baby boomers will be in retirement homes and I don't think they'll let you hang your 42" DSP sign in the retirement home. So, they'll be a small number of super-rich guys to buy the rare stuff and prices on the rest will drop due to lack of demand/interest. I don't care because I just like the stuff. It's not an investment to me, though it would be nice not to lose a ton of money on it.

BrianH

Make hay while you can is the motto of the many of the auction houses.

I'm not really understanding the saturation view and that hard to come by items are too readily obtained with more auctions ... thus lowering values.

You're dealing with a fixed commodity ... in regard to authentic, original petroliana ... they're not making any more of it. Doesn't matter how many times it's sold ... there is a finite amount of items ... so I really don't care how many auctions or how often something changes hands.

The issue moving forward long term is a sustainable group of collectors willing to buy.

I couldn't agree more with you-it doesn't matter how many times an individual item is sold. -But that's not what we're talking about here. There have been multiples/duplicates of items that we once perceived as being rare emerging at alarming rates.
-If I pay $6,000 for a sign I sure as heck don't wanna see 4 or 5 more examples of the same sign pop up in the next year. There is a direct correlation between scarcity and value. -and in my case I'm not even talking about monetary value-I'm telling you that I like an item less the more I see other examples out there. Its basic human nature. If we don't respect the storied history behind these items and recognize that they are and should be difficult to obtain then all we have left to value is aesthetic appeal and we would all hang reproductions. I think I speak for many when I say that we all like old things but we only truly covet that which is rare and place valuations on them accordingly.

Still having a hard time wrapping my mind around what you're saying.

I don't know what you mean by 'duplicate signs popping up'. If you're talking original authentic petroliana, those signs were obviously already in circulation. The fact you didn't see it in someone else's collection hanging on the wall is irrelevant. Maybe ignorance is bliss ... just because you didn't know Joe had one hanging on his wall shouldn't change your perception of your own sign.

The fact they are being sold again by another auction house shouldn't significantly change the scarcity or value of yours ... if anything in this current cycle it should drive the value of your sign up ... not down.

If by 'duplicate signs popping up' you mean repops ... I don't even think about their impact on the hobby as it can't be controlled anyway.

ok, my personal opinion aside:
- Why then does Dan Matthews put comments in Morphy auction listings such as..."first time we have seen this sign" or "very hard sign to find"? Perceived scarcity of an item has a direct impact on it's Value.

-why then do common muscle cars with low production rare factory option arrays bring 6 figures? If there were multiples of these they wouldn't realize the extra ordinary prices that they do

They're rare (valuable and sought after) because of production numbers ... not based on whether or not 10 more appear in an auction this year.

That's the whole point I've been trying to make to you ... it's a finite number ... it's based on production ... it doesn't really matter how many you see popping up at an auction.

The only number that changes is willing buyers.

I been watching this and was just going to be silent. But lets flip
your last comment. Say you are the person that gave your sign to auction house and they don't list a grade or make a comment as to rarity. You would fire them right? They are a service and its their duty to serve both seller and buyer. Its your duty to do your homework if you agree with their value or not. Auctions are listed well in advance to allow buyers to make their on mind up. And cars are cars,which is a whole other deal. But I grasp your point your trying to make by comparison.

but all we have to go by on petro items is how often they appear at auction or make themselves available for sale. -we don't have production numbers-so yes although its a finite number- how on earth are you able to tell what that number is?

We can only speculate at how many of these things were originally made and how many are still in existence.


when we seem a bunch of 'em for sale over the course of a year we can speculate that there's more of 'em out there than we realized there were the previous year.

and yes, you're correct- the only number that changes is willing buyers-that's exactly what I'm talking about here!

I'm going to keep buying till I'm broke or dead,which ever comes first. Don't worry if I spent 10,000 and it sells next week for 5 bucks,I liked it then ,so why wouldn't I like it tomorrow. We all over pay on this and that,still own pedal cars,and a box of beanie baby's lol,

Essco



I feel the same way !!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Sid

So if you buy a brand new pickup truck that you really like and next week the neighbor down the street buys the same truck and parks it in his front yard you still like yours just the same? doesn't bother you a bit because you originally liked it when you bought it?

Nope my truck 2015 HD 2500 Was the first Lifter Black Chevy Truck sold on the West Coast

Now in Kelso,Wa there at least 6 Black ones and many white ones

Still like mine the same

Sid

I think longer in the hobby and the more homework you do the better you can speculate. Lot of info can be learned,how long company was in business,what regions they were in states etc. No not like cars where one can find by vin.numbers yes this is special order one of one. Sorry petro just not that easy,education is your best friend,and yes I somewhat see your point but when I see something emerge that I knew was out there but I thought I would never see come to auction I get excited! Show me three of them in a year and I'm turning flips. Why because I've done my due homework. Your worry that buyers will play out-- well not in the near future.
Through educating myself I know when to get excited! It doesn't matter if its one in ten years,or a half dozen.

It doesn't matter that more rare items are being auctioned in a short period of time. There are still the same number in circulation.
Just because particular items haven't sold at high profile auctions doesn't mean they haven't been sold. The majority of petro collectibles sell at swap meets, on FB, or privately between collectors.

Rarity and desirability are not the same. Desirability (great graphics, or an item from a highly collectible company) affects value much more than rarity.

Don't discount what new collectors might spend. There are some new collectors dropping some serious cash.

With all of the high profile auctions, more petro swap meets than ever before, and the huge number of items selling on facebook, prices are higher than ever. I just don't see prices dropping because Morphy has so many auctions.

If you want the rare stuff that you do not see very often, then stop buying Texaco and Esso stuff as there's tons of it. Buy Gilmore, Musgo, Grizzly, Wasatch, Chief, or any of the other boutique oil company products, hang it on your wall and enjoy it.

If you're trying to compare what's appearing at auctions to benchmark the rarity of the stuff in your collection then you're looking at it all the wrong way. If you're a collector, then collect what "YOU" want and just enjoy what you have.

About 20 yrs ago I bought a couple of NOS tin Kelly tires flange signs with the smiling girl graphic. Naturally, I knew there were some in circulation but never really saw any except for an example that Aumann auctions sold (I think back when they did the Iowa auction?)for $18000 something. In October 2015 "A-Ok" auctions in Virginia sold another excellent example that realized $12500. Soon after Morphy, then Meccum, then Morphy and then someone else offered very nice examples and I think the last one realized like $6 or $8k even though it was just as nice as the one that brought twice the money several years and several examples previous.

How many of those Kelly signs had major restoration? I know of at least one that sold at a high profile auction.

How many bidders were still bidding when the price neared 18K or even 12,500? That's the thing about auctions. You don't know if it was 2 guys in a p***ing match, or several bidders that had the same idea on value.

Thinking its similar to the stock market..has to crash at some point. Like it or not, general interest is on the decline. This has been discussed numerous times..

What???stock market is the best investment I've ever made.Gas and oil is the 2nd best.